| Date (a) | Exchange rate (b) | EPS (sen) © | Forex gain/loss (RM'000) (d) | Effect of forex (e) | Actual EPS (w/o consider forex) (f) | Fair value gain on Thailand Airasia (RM'000) (g) | Effect of Fair Value Gain (h) | Actual EPS w/o consider forex and Fair Value Gain (i) | EPS (sen) (j) | Year (k) |
| 31/3/11 | 3.0253 | 6.2 | - | 6.20 | - | - | 6.20 | |||
| 30/6/11 | 3.0200 | 3.8 | - | 3.80 | - | - | 3.80 | |||
| 30/9/11 | 3.1890 | 5.5 | - | 5.50 | - | - | 5.50 | |||
| 31/12/11 | 3.1685 | 4.9 | (70,603) | (2.54) | 7.44 | - | - | 7.44 | 22.94 | 2011 |
| 31/3/12 | 3.0645 | 6.2 | 55,391 | 1.99 | 4.21 | - | - | 4.21 | ||
| 30/6/12 | 3.1778 | 43.0 | (65,947) | (2.37) | 45.37 | 1,160,370 | 41.72 | 3.65 | ||
| 30/9/12 | 3.0585 | 5.7 | 58,080 | 2.09 | 3.61 | - | - | 3.61 | ||
| 31/12/12 | 3.0580 | 12.6 | (20,858) | (0.75) | 13.35 | - | - | 13.35 | 24.82 | 2012 |
| 31/3/13 | 3.0935 | 3.8 | (37,688) | (1.36) | 5.16 | - | - | 5.16 | ||
| 30/6/13 | 3.1605 | 2.1 | (122,718) | (4.41) | 6.51 | - | - | 6.51 | ||
| 30/9/13 | 3.2595 | 1.3 | (185,885) | (6.68) | 7.98 | - | - | 7.98 | ||
| 31/12/13 | 3.2755 | 8.8 | (44,897) | (1.61) | 10.41 | - | - | 10.41 | 30.07 | 2013 |
From the table above shows that the EPS (earning per share) for Airasia during the past 3 years.
Column (a) shows that the quarterly ended date.
Column (b) shows that the exchange rate between USD and MYR.
Column (c) shows that the EPS as per announcement from the quarter report.
Column (d) shows that the total forex gain/loss during each quarter.
Column (d) shows that the effect of forex gain/loss to EPS during each quarter.
Column (e) shows that the EPS without consider the effect of forex.
Column (f) shows that the fair value gain on Thailand Airasia.
Column (h) shows that the effect of fair value gain to EPS.
Column (i) shows that the EPS without consider the effect of forex and fair value gain.
Column (j) shows that the yearly EPS without consider the effect of forex and fair value gain.
Column (k) shows that the year ended.
As you can see from column (j), the EPS for Airasia have improved year by year (2011: 22.94sen to 2012: 24.82sen to 2013: 30.07sen) while the share price still remain on RM2.26 (as per 24/4/2014). As you can see from column (e), the total effect of forex have drag down the EPS by 14.06sen (1.36+4.41+6.68+1.61), which is almost half of the actual EPS. Hence the price have been dropped from RM3.80 (10/7/2012) to RM2.26.
With the opening of KLIA 2 and stable forex exchange (USD to MYR) (31/12/2013:USD1 : RM3.2755 / 31/3/2014:USD1 : RM3.2725), the effect of forex loss for Airasia will not continued in Q1 2014. Hence, I believe the result for Q1 2014 for Airasia will improved.
Using EPS30sen, the price earning ratio is stand at as low as 7.5. If using PE 10, the price can be easily up to RM3.00 without consider the positive effect of venture in India market and opening of KLIA.
With the reason above, I think this is a golden opportunity to collect Airasia at a very attractive price. Oh ya, dont forget about the dividend that just declared this Wednesday. (2013: 4sen - which is 25% for the EPS as per yearly report)
This is the first time i written a blog. If there is any suggestion for improvement, please leave the comment on below.
Buy at your own risk.
Thank you
by pingdan
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